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Monday, May 2, 2011

After OBL

At Mass on Sundays, the Prayers of the Faithful now include a prayer for Civilian and Military personnel in Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and the Philippines.  A while ago it was just two nations, Iraq and Afghanistan.  Now it is up to four different conflicts.  That is a number that should give one pause.  And that is just the tip of the iceberg.  Terrorism, in one form or another, goes on in many other places, including Somalia, Yemen and (if you include Governments killing demonstrators) Syria.

So, with the death of Osama bin Laden one asks, what does this mean for the Long War, the war on terrorism?

In a discussion group out on the Web (thus comments are without attribution) someone suggested that now we could bring the troops home from Afghanistan.  One response was:
An understandable sentiment, but unrealistic.  Just b/c Osama was killed does not meant that the alert level for air travel will drop (and, indeed, it will likely rise).  It does not mean that the Taliban, al-Qaeda, Jemaah Islamiyah, or any of the other groups will lay down their arms.  It may not even demoralize them---Osama is not a martyr, gone to his 72 virgins.

We can and should celebrate (not EVERY death diminishes me), but also recognize that it is but one step in the stlll long road back to normalcy.
The counter-response was:
I know—but we can continue the fight differently by taking the initiative and getting our folks out of Afghanistan where they can be killed on a daily basis.  If the Pakistanis want to control Afghanistan, then let them—and hold them accountable for any terrorist acts that emanate from both Afghanistan and their own country—along with Karzai's fifedom in Kabul.  This is a godsend for Obama's campaign for 2012—if he takes advantage of it.
As an aside, I don't know if this second person is an R or a D, but it is a good point.

So, what is the path forward?  My comment had been:
I wouldn't be too fast, since the Taliban itself, unless it collapsed after this, is still out there and opposing the Government in Kabul.
What do YOU think?

Regards  —  Cliff

3 comments:

Craig H said...

I've always viewed the threat, and al qaeda, as a loose collection of coincidentally like-minded criminals without central command and control, and, as such, hardly affected by something like this, other than to have yet one more fabricated excuse to do damage. For us, this means the war just escalated, not the other way around, and we need to be ready for an extended period of vigilance. You don't have to win for an incident to be the rallying point for some future effort, and I think Santa Anna might agree that getting rid of Davy Crockett and Jim Bowie was just the start of his problems.

Jack Mitchell said...

I'm waiting to see how this development effects our relationship with Pakistan.

SOS Clinton:
In Pakistan we are committed to supporting the people and government as they defend their own democracy from violent extremism. Indeed, as the President said, bin Ladin had also declared war on Pakistan. He had ordered the killings of many innocent Pakistani men, women, and children. In recent years, the cooperation between our governments, militaries, and law enforcement agencies increased pressure on al-Qaida and the Taliban, and this progress must continue and we are committed to our partnership.

Info is coming out, true or not, that Pakistan knew ObL was there. I expect GOPer's from the bumper sticker braintrust to start trying to counter Obama's uptick off of these events. I expect them to exploit any opportunity they can, real or imagined, to make Obama appear weak and indecisive.

The Left will politicize this. So, the Right will, too. The difference being, the Right is trying to undermine the current CinC.

Anonymous said...

As the Left did for 8 years, and for the 8 years in the 80's. One party undermining the other is hardly new, or particularly noteworthy, in fact, it is not even newsworthy...since news these days is very little substance and a whole lot of fragrance (author unknown..but I love the quote).

People love to connect dots and group apples with apples, etc., but the Taliban is NOT AQ, or vice versa. And Pakistan is not the Taliban or vice versa. That they are all some form of Islamic extremists is perhaps the only common ground among them. That they will "help" each other against the US is unquestioned. But, they are NOT the same.

And thus, while we may well have decapitated AQ, it only creates a vacuum that will be rapidly filled. Recall too that AQ was largely formed on the basis of OBL's profound hatred of the US. Whether or not what is left of AQ sustains that very personal hatred remains to be seen.

One has to be completely skeptical of any claim of ignorance on the part of the Pakis in re OBL living among them. On that basis alone, I would like to see us pull out and away from Pakistan. The fact of keeping them friendly because they and India both have "the bomb" is a thin rationale.

Time to come home.

The SEAL who double tapped OBL should get a LOM or something along those lines. In fact, the 160th crews and the SEAL Team 6 members should be feted for this accomplishment........very privately of course. We will never see the faces of the participants....or for that matter...know their names. They are very special people though. My bet is that they RTB, had a bunch of beers, grabbed some quick z's, and are likely up, did their "morning run" and are in mission planning as we speak for the next "excursion."

BTW.....Obama would very likely not have been able to get to this historic moment had it not been for the HUGE intel reorg in 2004 pushed by Bush....and the stepped up intel procedures that everyone criticized and continues to lambast him for.

I don't see this as being a watershed event for Obama. Getting OBL was just taking care of unfinished business.....but there are MUCH more serious issues today....and I don't see Obama doing much to avert the continuing rush to disaster.